Recent Commentaries

New Swag For 2019

March 2019 will mark two full years with the US unemployment rate below the CBO estimate of the NAIRU. And it hasn’t been just a minor dip through this 4.6% “equilibrium” level. For the last 12 months the unemployment rate has averaged 3.9%, and for the last 24 months...

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Monetary Malpractice

On Dec 19th the Fed’s measure of 5-year forward, 5-year inflation expectations was at 1.83%. It had fallen steadily since the early autumn peaks of 2.20%; however, in the December FOMC statement there was no mention of this substantial drop. Instead, Jay was busy...

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Where are all the 3.5–4% peeps now??

So far, 2019 has not been kind to those with bearish proclivities. In the first four weeks of 2019 spoos are up about 6%, while spoos & blues (under my standard weightings) gained about 5.5%. These moves more than reverse all the 2018 losses for both straight...

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