Gridlock and Goldilocks

There were no major surprises from the midterms or the FOMC meeting. And as with nearly all post-war post-midterm experiences, risk assets “relief-rallied” on the outcome of gridlock in DC. Looking ahead, I expect that risk assets, rates, and the dollar will likely...

An easy solution to Jay’s troubles

Before proposing an extremely simple way for Jay to credibly fix his sus linguae of Oct 3rd without looking like a POTUS puppet, let’s quickly discuss two other important topics. First, on this coming Wednesday from 5 to 7pm I will be hosting a cocktail event across...

Spoos to Jay: “So, you’re a long way from neutral, huh?!?”

Here is the situation: Jay completely botched Fed communications on October 3rd. His off-the-cuff “long way from neutral” comment sent 10s to 3.25%, which in turn caused equity investors to reaccess their longer-term discount rates and cut risk. The ensuing weakness...

It’s all about the “distance from neutrality”

Last Friday I promised a few technical thoughts on the recent price action. Here you go: 1. Jay’s comment on being a “long way from neutrality” in his Oct 3rd PBS interview caused rates to break out of the established 2018 range. This in turn forced equity investors...

The next POTUS nickname: Crazy Jayhawk

We have had Pocahontas, Little Marco, Lyin’ Ted, Rocketman, Low-Energy Jeb, and of course Crooked Hillary. So now, with Jay’s confusing statements about being a long way from neutrality last week rattling the bond markets, thereby freaking out the equity markets, the...

We are a long way from Shambhala, probably

This past Wednesday evening Jay Powell participated in a PBS interview with Judy Woodruff. You can watch it here: https://youtu.be/lEPcPIYTMY0. At around the 7:45 minute mark you will find the comments which triggered this break higher in bond yields. Here are the key...

Spoos & Steepeners or Spoos & Blues?

The following statement from Jay’s NABE speech last night pretty much sums up the current state of US monetary policy: “... many factors, including the better conduct of monetary policy over the past few decades, have greatly reduced, but not eliminated, the effects...

No precise understanding of where accommodative stops

There was very little to change policy expectations in the FOMC statement this past week, as evidenced by the muted reactions across risk-asset, rate, and currency markets. And Jay delivered another crisp, concise, and clear analysis of the current state of both the...

Ibid

Definition of ibid: /ˈibid/ adverb – An abbreviation for the Latin word ibīdem, meaning “in the same place,” commonly used in an endnote, footnote, bibliography citation, or scholarly reference to refer to the source cited in the preceding note or list item. Today’s...
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