Fifty Shades of Jay

It has been nearly three weeks since I wrote a new commentary. Over that time the markets calmed, the Fed messaged a pause, and there really hasn't been much new for me to say. I had spent the last four months trying to convince our clients that Jay’s random bouts of...

CNBC this morning

Here are some bullets for my market discussion on CNBC: 1. Many in the markets are attributing the recent bout of volatility to the federal government shutdown. That is likely a mistake. We have had 22 shutdowns over the last 40 odd years with very limited market...

The Williams Put??

John William’s interview earlier today on CNBC should be a lesson to Jay on how to bring a little humility into the monetary policy arena. John’s diplomatic tone with regard to listening to market signals, speaking to business leaders, and watching the economic data...

Flip-Flop, Flip-FLOP

Since early October I have found Fed communications quite difficult to understand. And based on the increased turmoil in financial markets, it appears I’m not alone here. Now, we could spend an enormous amount of time parsing through the potential reasons for this...

The terminal funds rate redux

Currently the futures market projects that we will reach the terminal funds rate for this business cycle just after the highly likely 25bps increase at next week’s FOMC meeting. The Jan 2019 implied fed funds rate is 2.39%. The Jan 2020 implied rate is 2.58%, and the...

The pause that refreshes

While recent whippiness in the daily price action of risk assets has most folks on edge, it is useful to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Specifically, the year-to-date total return for the S&P was +0.32% as of close of business last Friday. Yes,...

Thanks Jay, I always enjoy a good Fed miscommunication

Monetary policy mistakes and miscommunications are the bread and butter of macro trading. Without them I probably wouldn’t have a job. Therefore, I want to give a big shout-out to Jay this morning for creating yet another wonderful opportunity for macro traders during...

A moonwalk from Jay, with some help from Rich

Jay’s fireside chat in Dallas last Wednesday evening was more about what he didn’t say than what he did say. In particular, Jay did NOT restate his early October “long way from neutral comment.” Now, if he really believed that original statement, and he wanted to get...
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